In July of this year, the number of Tesla Model 3 insured reached 11,000, and the monthly sales exceeded 10,000; the number of BYD's new energy vehicles reached 9 million, an increase of 9.0% from the previous month. According to data from the China Automobile Association, in July, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles were 100,000 and 98,000, respectively, up 15.6% and 19.3% year-on-year. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in July turned from negative to positive, ending the 12 consecutive months of negative growth since July last year.
Driven by major new energy vehicle promoters such as China, the United States, Germany, and Japan, the global new energy vehicle market has entered a period of rapid growth. As the core of electric energy conversion and circuit control of electronic devices, power semiconductors are the subdivisions with the largest increase in value during the transition from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. At the same time, the domestic power semiconductor market has huge demand, but high value-added products have long been monopolized by European and American manufacturers, and domestic substitution is imminent. Under the dual benefits of market demand and policy orientation, power semiconductors are expected to become the best breakthrough for "China Chip".
Speeding up electrification, the value of power semiconductors is growing fastest
Data show that in 2019, the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.21 million, with a penetration rate of 2.5%. It is estimated that by 2025, the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles will exceed 10 million units, reaching 11.5 million units, a compound annual growth rate of 32% compared to 2019. Calculated on the basis of an increase in the cost of power semiconductors of US$280 per bicycle, new energy vehicles will bring about US$3.2 billion in increments to the global power semiconductor market.
Industry analysts pointed out that new energy vehicles are shifting from policy-driven to supply-side-driven. Among them, the intensive listing of supply-side explosive models has become the core driving force.
The second-quarter financial report released by the leading domestic car manufacturer NIO on August 11 showed that the company's gross profit margin turned positive for the first time, achieving a sales gross profit margin of 9.7%, a comprehensive gross profit margin of 8.4%, and a significant year-on-year operating loss. Narrowed by 64%. Previously, NIO’s second-quarter sales data showed that in the second quarter, a total of 10,331 vehicles were delivered, and for the first time, a single-season delivery of tens of thousands was achieved. Sales growth promoted the realization of economies of scale, and the turnaround in gross profit margin reflected a substantial increase in profitability.
"The development trajectory that appeared in the IT era and the smart phone era will most likely also occur in automobiles. It is only a matter of time." Ni Zhigang, director of the security and connectivity business department of Aptoff Asia Pacific, discussed the future innovation and upgrade of automobiles. Zhongweiji Micronet pointed out.
In analogy to the development history of smart phones, the emergence of explosive models will promote the new energy vehicle industry from the introduction period to the growth period. In this analysis, Great Wall Securities believes that the global new energy pattern has gradually formed, and the prosperity of domestic new energy vehicles is gradually picking up. At the same time, as global industry leaders like Tesla enter the country, relying on extremely competitive product strength and brand power, they will further activate the market. At the same time, Tesla’s localization in China will bring domestic industry chain companies Major development opportunities.
In the transition from traditional automobiles to new energy automobiles, the segment with the largest value growth is power semiconductors.
Power semiconductors are the core of electrical energy conversion and circuit control of electronic devices. As a closed system, the internal power output of a car needs to be realized through the conversion of discrete devices and power MOSFET devices, which is especially important in hybrid and new energy vehicles. According to statistics from Strategy Analytics and Infineon, traditional fuel vehicles use approximately 21 power semiconductors at a cost of about US$71; light-duty hybrid electric vehicles (MHEV) cost approximately US$90; high-hybrid electric vehicles (FHEV) The cost of power semiconductors in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) has risen to US$305; the cost of power semiconductors in pure electric vehicles (BEV) can reach US$350, which is about 5 times the cost of power semiconductors in traditional fuel vehicles.